Remember when we were all surprised that Martin Gelinas turned down Milwaukee’s head coaching gig so quickly?

If you don’t here’s the quote from a prior Ryan Miller post entitled “The Aftermath“:

I (aka Ryan) asked Fenton (Preds assistant G.M. Paul Fenton) if he knows if Marty (Martin Gelinas) has any interest in changing career paths.

“He doesn’t.  No, I’ve already spoken with Marty.  He has no interest in it.”

Come to find out the former Calgary Flames forward had another plan in place the whole time. Though that may or may not be the case, yesterday Gelinas chose to leave the Nashville Predators organization altogether.

The current/now former director of player development for Nashville, and former interim Admirals assistant coach is moving back to Calgary, joining coach Bob Hartley’s new staff in the land of the stampede.

In a Canadian Press article Gelinas expressed that it was difficult choice.

“When this came about and I had this opportunity, it was a tough decision because I’m leaving a franchise where in Nashville I was treated very well where David Poile (Predators GM) is a great man and treated me like family,” Gelinas said. “(But) after the 2004 run, it was a dream of mine to come back and work for this organization. Calgary’s home for me. It’s always been since I left.”

So Gelinas and Herbers are headed back home to Alberta. The question now is who will make their new home in Milwaukee?

Sounds like Fenton is narrowing in on his choice according to Dave Boehler of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Josh Cooper of the Tennessean goes a step further and says the Predators are ‘close’ to having a new Milwaukee head man in place.

“I’m very close to hiring a coach, it may not be this week, but it’s certainly in the works,” Fenton told Cooper. “It has been a great process I’ve had some tremendous candidates this year. I hope I don’t have to do it again next year.”

Fenton also added:

“The person I have in mind is going to be a very, very good coach for us.”

So Roundtable . . . What are your feelings on the departure of Martin Gelinas from the Predators organization?

With the first two rounds of the American Hockey League playoffs in the books, somehow the four remaining teams, each a top-two seeded finisher in each conference, managed to buck recent trends and advance to the conference finals.

The result is a pair of matchups second to none which will decide who will play for the Calder Cup. Another special note, perennial playoff favorites like Hershey, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, Milwaukee and Chicago have all bowed out in the first two rounds, leaving each remaining team pursing its first ever league title.

Here are my previews for the AHL conference finals:

Western Conference: 1) Oklahoma City Barons (45-22-4-5–99 points) vs. 2) Toronto Marlies (44-24-5-3–96 points)

Oklahoma City and Toronto both represent the Western Conference’s elite teams this season as both clubs separated themselves from the pack in the early going and never really looked back. Ironically, both teams took the same rout in the second round to get to this point, losing their first game at home before sweeping through the next four games, winning three in a row on the road.

Lead by red hot Mark Arcobello the Barons have a slight edge offensely, but Marlies goaltender Ben Scrivens has been the playoffs best netminder so far.

My prediction: In a hotly contested seven-game series, I have Toronto upsetting Oklahoma City.

Eastern Conference: 1) Norfolk Admirals (55-18-1-2–113 points) vs. 2) St. John’s IceCaps (43-25-5-3–94 points)

Much like the Western Conference final, the Eastern Conference features another major travel adventure, in this case between the conference’s two furthest separated clubs. Like their geography, these were the two clubs that separated themselves the furthest in their own divisions, as Norfolk built up a 18-point cushion on the Penguins in the East Division thanks to an AHL record 28-game winning streak to close the year, while St. John’s coasted in Atlantic Division posting an 11-point edge over Manchester.

But unlike their Western counterparts, neither squad has been overly convincing in the victories en route to the conference finals. Led by AHL star Alexandre Picard and rookie Alex Killorn, the “other” Admirals feature superior offensive talent. Meanwhile, the first-year IceCaps feature depth in scoring behind leaders Brock Trotter and Aaron Gagnon.

My prediction: I think this will be the series that Norfolk pulls away on its path to the Calder Cup, dumping St. John’s in five games.

So Roundtable . . . Who do see winning their respective conferences and why?

In a few weeks when I return from vacation, I will be putting a capper on Milwaukee’s 2011-2012 season for MilwaukeeAdmirals.com.

But for now just a few nuggets of thoughts:

1) As I stated yesterday, this season was remarkable, eventful and certainly dramatic. It was remarkable because I thought Milwaukee overcame a lot of adversity this season to again overachieve. It was eventful for a number of reasons, namely the hiring and subsequent midseason departure of a high profile coach in Kirk Muller and the growing pains of Ian Herbers as coach (who I thought did a fantastic job under difficult circumstances). As for drama, there was certainly no shortage: This season had some of the highest peaks and valleys ever witnessed, from the fast start, to the huge lull in the middle, to the incredible playoff run, to the thud finish against Abbotsford in the first round. Need more? How about winning the final game of the regular season to get into the playoffs, while your opponent, Charlotte, loses and falls one point short of a berth. That same team, the Checkers, lost three times in regulation to the Admirals in the season’s final two weeks. Flip just one of those games and Milwaukee is out and Charlotte gets in.

2) The Rockfordian dilemma. When I talked to Scott Ford before the playoffs, the team’s trials and tribulations with the IceHogs were still fresh on his mind. If Milwaukee played Rockford at .500 or better this season, the Admirals would be challenging Toronto and Oklahoma City for the top spots in the conference.

3) Milwaukee posted great records all season against Western Conference playoff teams. Hence why I thought if the Admirals could just make the playoffs, they would be a dangerous out.

4) The finish. Milwaukee’s run to the playoffs was the stuff of legends. 23 out of a possible 32 points to end the year showed just how badly the Admirals wanted to get the playoffs. After getting swept by Abbotsford, now the question is whether Milwaukee burned out by having to play playoff hockey for nearly two months just to get in.

5) Favorite Moments: Mine was Milwaukee’s 8-3 drubbing of Abbotsford in coach Ian Herbers first game. Yes the score doesn’t really tell the true story, but it was great to see the team give that kind of performance out for its new coach who took the job out of necessity. The Brawl, enough said, is a close second. Third would be the final game of the regular season.

6) Biggest surprise: I knew from game one that Victor Bartley was going to be good, but what a year from the player still classified as an AHL rookie.

7) Season’s MVP: Considering Jeremy Smith’s numbers, he is the easy and obvious choice. But my pick would be Chris Mueller, who led the team in scoring, added some huge goals, whose play did not drop off during the Admirals midseason funk, and who could always be counted on. Scott Ford’s leadership, especially his plus +24 season (tops by a large margin for Milwaukee) should not be underestimated either.

8) My 2012 Calder Cup pick: I am going to go out on a HUGE limb and pick Norfolk to win the Calder Cup. I have the “other” Admirals beating the Toronto Marlies to claim the title.

Finally,

Thank you to all of my colleagues here at the Roundtable, especially Ryan Miller for another great season. Thank you to the Milwaukee Admirals players and coaches for their candid comments and willingness to talk with me this season. Thank you to the Milwaukee Admirals staff, especially Charlie Larson and Aaron Sims, for all of your help during the course of the year. Finally, thanks to our readers for making this blog one of the best in the AHL.

On Tuesday before Milwaukee’s first round series with Abbotsford, I asked Admirals’ captain Scott Ford to give me some thoughts about the Heat.

Ford gave streaking Abbotsford plenty of praise, stating that the Heat have “a big and physical team, a couple of defenseman who are skilled and who really control the puck, and solid goaltending as well.”

But in his next statement he laid out a big factor on how Milwaukee can win the series: “We are going to have to shutdown Krys Kolanos’ line.”

(To read the rest of my postseason preview feature on MilwaukeeAdmirals.com, click here)

So far the Admirals have failed mightily in control Kolanos’ line, and in particular Abbotsford’s top scorer himself and that is the biggest culprit in Milwaukee’s 2-0 deficit. In two games Kolanos has four goals and six points, and it can be easily argued that Kolanos was the difference in Abbotsford’s Game 2 win.

To get to this point in his career, Kolanos has endured plenty of highs and lows, and at 30-years-old the former 19th overall draft pick is one of the oldest players that plays primarily in the AHL. His NHL career spans 20 goals and 149 games, but 98 of those games came in his first three seasons (2001-2004), all with Phoenix. Perhaps Kolanos never quite reached his full potential due to the serious concussion he suffered back in 2002.

More injuries sat in his future last year, as Kolanos sat out all of 2010-2011 (a total of 21 months) due to microfracture surgery on his left hip. This season Kolanos earned an AHL contract after attending training camp on a professional tryout. Now the quirky forward is easily Abbotsford’s most dangerous offensive threat.

(Read more on Kolanos’ story here)

Heading into Wednesday’s Game 3, Milwaukee stands in the unenviable position of facing elimination. In order to play a Game 4 in Abbotsford, the Admirals will have to find some way to slow down Kolanos.

So Roundtable . . . Any solutions to slow down Krys Kolanos? Do you think Milwaukee would have won Game 2 if Kolanos isn’t a factor?

#4 Abbotsford Heat (42-26-3-5–92 points) vs. #5 Milwaukee Admirals (40-29-2-5–87 points)

Season Series: Milwaukee went 3-0-0-1 vs. Abbotsford this season, losing only one game to the Heat in a shootout. The Admirals victory on Nov. 29 represented Milwaukee’s largest offensive output of the season. That victory was also the AHL heading coaching debut for Admirals coach Ian Herbers.

Game Results:
Oct. 20: MIL 1 @ ABB 2 (SO)
Oct. 21: MIL 3 @ ABB 1
Nov. 29: MIL 8 vs. ABB 3
Feb. 24: MIL 4 vs. ABB 1

Here is my breakdown of the series:

Offense: Much like last year’s matchup against Texas, neither team is overly explosive offensively as Milwaukee scored 210 goals this season, while Abbotsford’s 200-goal total ranks as the second fewest of any AHL playoff team.  For the second straight season Chris Mueller (team leading 32 goals and 60 points) topped the Admirals’ scoring charts, but Kyle Wilson is the team’s most effective play maker (team leading 32 assists).  Abbotsford lacks offensive depth, but has two dangerous scorers in Krys Kolanos (team leading 30 goals, 61 points and +20 rating) and former Admiral Hugh Jessiman (27 goals), plus a talented play maker in Ben Walter (40 assists). With slightly more top-end talent, and full stock of players at their disposal from Calgary, I will give Abbotsford a slight edge offensively.

Defense: Despite losing Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis to Nashville, Milwaukee again has a group of blue liners second to none in the AHL. Rookie Victor Bartley (39 points, +12) has emerged as one of the AHL’s best two-way players, while Scott Ford (team leading +24), Tyler Sloan (+12) and Teemu Laakso are all effective veterans. Meanwhile, after starting the season in Nashville, Jonathon Blum (26 points in 48 games) is playing better and better in every game for Milwaukee. Brian Connelly (team leading 46 assists), former Wisconsin Badger Joe Piskula and Clay Wilson represent a talented trio for the Heat, but Abbotsford can’t match Milwaukee’s depth. Defensively, I think Milwaukee has a slight edge.

Goaltending: In goal Milwaukee features one of the AHL’s elite workhorses in Jeremy Smith (31-19-2), who topped the league in minutes played (3,283), ranked second in wins, goals against average (2.17) and shutouts (five), and sits in 10th place with a save percentage of .922. Abbotsford features a pair of 22-win goaltenders in Danny Taylor and Leland Irving, but considering Irving’s poor record against Milwaukee, Taylor will likely get the call against the Admirals. A red hot Jeremy Smith gives Milwaukee a clear backstop edge.

Special Teams: Milwaukee carries the AHL’s fifth best power play unit, scoring 57 goals in 293 opportunities, good for a 19.5% success rate. Meanwhile, Abbotsford has a similar mark of scoring 50 man advantage goals in 296 chances, but the Heat surrendered 12 shorthanded goals this season. As far as penalty killing, Abbotsford carries the league’s 10th best unit, successful 83.5% of the time. Milwaukee had one of the league’s worst units for the first two thirds of the season, but the Admirals moved up to 17th place in the AHL with a 82.1% success rate. I see this category as a wash, with Milwaukee having a superior power play, while Abbotsford features a superior penalty kill.

Playoff Experience: With a two-round run last spring Milwaukee’s veterans enter the playoffs battle tested and ready for combat. However, the Admirals remain as one of the league’s youngest teams. Meanwhile, Abbotsford failed to reach the playoffs a season ago, and have just one postseason berth on their three-year franchise resume. However, the Heat feature players like Jessiman and Wilson, who have been through the playoff grind before. Milwaukee should have a slight edge in the experience department.

Coaching: Training under one of the AHL’s best in Lane Lambert and current NHL head coach Kirk Muller, it took sometime for Admirals bench boss Ian Herbers to find his stride after being thrust into the role midseason. Meanwhile, former University of Wisconsin assistant Troy Ward took over coaching the Heat after one season as the team’s assistant and guided Abbotsford to the most productive year in the franchise’s short history. Ward is now being mentioned as a possible replacement for Brent Sutter in Calgary. With two coaches with similar backgrounds making their AHL postseason debuts, I don’t see an edge for either team here.

Intangibles: After getting swept in a home and home series with Rockford, Milwaukee gained 23 of a possible 32 points to end the season, making the playoffs on the final day of the regular season with a 6-1 win over Charlotte. Meanwhile, Abbotsford enters the playoffs as the AHL’s second hottest team (behind Norfolk, which has won 28 straight games), having won seven games in a row, while earning points in nine straight games. Tough call again, but I will give Abbotsford a slight edge.

Final Summation: In a short five-game series, there is little time to recover from a poor start, so the first two games at the Bradley Center will be critical. I see Milwaukee splitting at the BC as Abbotsford (one of the league’s best road teams) takes Sunday’s game. However, Milwaukee will respond with terrific hockey in British Columbia, taking a page out of their recent road success by winning the next two games. Therefore, I predict Milwaukee will win the series in four games.

So Roundtable . . . How would you breakdown the series against Abbotsford, and what are the keys for Milwaukee to prevail? Do you see any clear categories that the Admirals have the edge?

Does Milwaukee’s success during the season series, which ended back in February, matter?

How about Calgary not making the NHL playoffs, while Nashville looks primed for a deep postseason run. Is that a factor?

After starting all three games over the weekend and allowing just three non shootout goals, Milwaukee goaltender Jeremy Smith was named the Reebok/AHL Player of the Week for the period ending Sunday, April 15. Over the course of the Admirals final three-in-three, Smith stopped 78 of 81 shots, earning five of a possible six points available over the weekend.

The impressive weekend left Smith in the top spot in the AHL in minutes played with 3,283, second in wins (31-19-2) and in goals against average (2.17). The third-year professional is also tied for second in AHL shutouts with five and sits in 10th place overall with a .922 save percentage.

Smith is the first Admiral to receive the honor this season, and the first Milwaukee to receive the award since Blake Geoffrion claimed back-to-back crystals on Jan. 30 and Feb. 6 last winter.

Over the past week the AHL announced several individual 2011-2012 season awards as well. Here is a list of the victors:

Les Cunningham Award (AHL MVP): Cory Conacher, Norfolk Admirals.

John B. Sollenberger Trophy (leading scorer): Chris Bourque, Hershey Bears (93 points).

Willie Marshall Award (leading goal scorer): Cory Conacher, Norfolk Admirals (39 goals).

Dudley (Red) Garret Memorial Award (AHL’s most outstanding rookie): Cory Conacher, Norfolk Admirals.

Yanick Dupre Award (AHL Man of the Year): Nick Petrecki, Worchester Sharks.

Aldege “Baz” Bastien Award (AHL’s most outstanding goalie): Yann Danis, Oklahoma City.

Eddie Shore Award (AHL’s most outstanding defenseman): Mark Barberio, Norfolk Admirals.

Louis A.R. Pieri Award (AHL’s most outstanding coach): Jon Cooper, Norfolk Admirals.

Fred T. Hunt Award (AHL player best exemplifies the qualities of sportsmanship, determination and dedication to hockey): Chris Minard, Grand Rapids Griffins.

Harry “Hap” Holmes Award (at least 25 games played on team which allows fewest goals): Ben Scrivens, Toronto Marlies.

Milwaukee received some great news from its parent organization Nashville today as goaltender Jeremy Smith was returned to the Admirals. The Predators swapped Smith for Chet Pickard as the team’s reserve goaltender for Game 1 against Detroit.

Prior to exchange Milwaukee was left with a backup goaltender in Pickard, who hadn’t played a single game in the AHL in 2011-2012. A season prior Pickard found ice time in just seven games at the AHL level. With the Admirals facing a desperation three games in three nights stretch to finish the season, Milwaukee coach Ian Herbers faced the prospect of starting Atte Engren in all three games (Engren had yet to play on back-to-back nights all season) or rolling the dice with Pickard for at least one start.

Certainly Nashville’s decision to return Smith (29-19-1, 2.25 goals against average, .920 save percentage) bolsters Milwaukee’s prospects for its final weekend where the Admirals will face three Midwest Division foes that own better records in their season series. Rockford is 9-1-0-1 and Chicago is 6-4-0-1  in their 11 prior head-to-head match up with the Admirals. Meanwhile, Charlotte holds a 4-3-0-0 mark in its prior seven games against Milwaukee, but the Admirals can take the season series with a regulation victory on Sunday.

Currently Milwaukee stands at the top of a precarious sixth place in the Western Conference at 38-28-2-4, good for 82 points tied for the same total as Houston (3 Games Remaining), Peoria (2 GR), Lake Erie (2 GR) and Rochester (2 GR). Charlotte at 81 points with three games left is still alive, as is Grand Rapids at 77 (but the Griffins would need to win out their final three games and get TONS of help). Oklahoma City, Toronto, Chicago and Abbotsford will all be in the Calder Cup playoffs. San Antonio sits one point ahead of the pack at 83 total with three games left to play.

Here are the remaining games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) for teams fighting for the final four postseason slots:

MILWAUKEE:  at Rockford, at Chicago, vs. Charlotte

San Antonio:  vs. Texas, at Houston, vs. Oklahoma City

Houston:  at Oklahoma City, vs. San Antonio, vs. Texas

Peoria:  vs. Charlotte, OFF, at Chicago

Lake Erie:  vs. Hamilton, vs. Rochester, OFF

Rochester:  vs. Syracuse, at Lake Erie, OFF

Charlotte:  at Peoria, at Rockford, at Milwaukee

Grand Rapids:  vs. Chicago, at Hamilton, at Hamilton.

So Roundtable . . . How many points do you think Milwaukee needs to make the playoffs? My best guess is that the Admirals need 86 points to guarantee playing in the postseason, that would mean taking four of six available points this weekend.

How many points do think Milwaukee will get this weekend? My best guess is four, two points between Rockford and Chicago, two for a win against Charlotte.

Who gets into the Calder Cup playoffs and who stays out? I predict Milwaukee, San Antonio, Houston and Rochester get in, while Peoria, Charlotte, Lake Erie and Grand Rapids will end up left out.

Following up Jeremy Smith’s surprising non-start Sunday, on Monday Nashville General Manager David Poile confirmed Monday the fact that Smith has been recalled to the Predators. The assignment is under emergency conditions, and is subject to the league’s twenty-three man roster limitations.

Therefore, at the present it looks like the Admirals will be proceeding ahead with backup netminder Atte Engren in net. That might not be such a bad thing as the Rauma, Finland native has given up just five goals in his last four outings, grabbing a pair of wins and shootout losses.

Meanwhile, Smith had redeemed a tough month of January by moving up to second place in the AHL in wins with 29, games played (53) and in minutes, manning the Admirals net for 3,096 minutes this season. The Dearborn, Michigan native stopped 63-of-64 shots in wins against Charlotte and San Antonio and served a one-game suspension during an eventful past week.

No word yet on how long Smith will be retained by the Predators as Nashville prepares to take on Detroit in the first round of the NHL playoffs at home on Wednesday and Friday. After Tuesday’s game with the Rampage, Milwaukee is off until Friday’s matchup at Rockford.