Author: Jason Karnosky

AHL Doles out Suspensions to Latta and Smith; Pickard Joins Preds

As expected, the American Hockey League took harsh actions toward four of the participants in the April Fools Day brawl with Rockford.

Admirals forward Michael Latta and goaltender Jeremy Smith each received suspensions, with Latta’s time off set at three games (both games against Charlotte and Saturday’s game against San Antonio). Smith will be forced to sit out Thursday’s game against the Checkers (surprisingly not Tuesday’s game). Rockford’s Rob Flick and Shawn Lalonde each received three-game sentences from the AHL, matching Latta’s sentence.

Both Ice Hogs coach Ted Dent and Admirals coach Ian Herbers were not suspended, but both bench bosses plus their organizations received fines.

Certainly the AHL’s Tuesday actions came as little surprise considering the extent of affairs on Sunday afternoon at the Bradley Center, but they do nothing to sooth their impact on the Admirals as they make the trek to Charlotte for the final time this season. Both Latta and Smith will be sorely missed from the Admirals lineup this week as Milwaukee embarks on its longest road trip of the season.

Heading into Tuesday night’s matchup with the Checkers, Milwaukee stands at 34-28-2-4, good for 74 points. The Admirals are currently four points behind 8th place Peoria and five behind the three-way log jam for fifth place, which includes Charlotte, Houston and San Antonio. Check out the AHL’s playoff primer here.

In other somewhat unrelated news, Nashville general manager David Poile announced today that Chet Pickard has been assigned to the Predators. Pickard recently completed his season with Cincinnati, going 14-12-2 with a 3.12 goals-against average and a .890 save percentage, while posting one shutout. Pickard was also called up to Nashville at the end of the 2010-2011 season.

So Roundtable . . . What is you assessment of Tuesday’s suspensions? Did you think Latta would receive more/less games? What about Smith sitting out Thursday, but not Tuesday?

Van Guilder Nominated for AHL Man of the Year Award

The American Hockey League announced today that Mark Van Guilder was named Milwaukee’s 2011-2012 IOA/American Speciality AHL Man of the Year Award winner for his outstanding contributions to his community during the course of the season.

Some of the highlights of Van Guilder’s charity work are his active role in “Reading: The Ultimate Power Play,” tutoring a student by helping with his reading and writing skills, serving as a celebrity waiter for Prevent Blindless of Wisconsin’s annual fundraiser and in the Admirals’ Celebrity Serve for the Power-Play Foundation, visiting the Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin and helping out delivering turkey dinners for local needy families.

All that on top of playing in 62 games to date for the Admirals, scoring 12 goals and 13 assists while holding a plus seven rating. Van Guilder shines in his role as one of the team’s top penalty killers and faceoff specialists.

The fourth-year professional from Burnsville, Minnesota is one of 30 finalists for the AHL’s Yanick Dupre Memorial Award. Another notable on the list is former Admiral Darren Haydar of Chicago.

Certainly the nomination is well-deserved for Van Guilder as a player who means a lot to both his team and his community. Read my feature story on his efforts on MilwaukeeAdmirals.com.

So Roundtable . . . What are some of your favorite Mark Van Guilder stories, or highlights from his on ice efforts?

Dupont and Blum Could Make the Difference

To say this weekend’s pair of home games is huge for Milwaukee would be the understatement of the year.

With only three games at the Bradley Center remaining on the schedule, where Milwaukee ranks tied for the third best record in the AHL (21-11-2-1–45 points), the Admirals need to take full advantage against Oklahoma City and Rockford Friday and Sunday. Otherwise the final showdown with Charlotte to end the season might not matter after Milwaukee faces seven straight road games. The Admirals have just 13 wins in 31 road games so far this season, posting the third-worst away record in the AHL at 13-16-0-2–28 points.

To add those two precious games into the win column, the Admirals need to continue getting offensive support from a couple of sources that have taken their game’s up a level in recent weeks–forward Brodie Dupont and defenseman Jonathon Blum.

To say Dupont had a slow start to his 2011-2012 season with Milwaukee would be the understatement of the year. Perhaps rushing back from serious injury, Dupont managed just two assists through his first 24 games, a far cry from his average of 42 points per season over the past three years.

However, ever since he scored a pair of goals in Milwaukee’s dramatic 5-4 come from behind victory against Lake Erie on March 16, Dupont’s been one of the Admirals’ best scoring options.  The Russell, Manitoba native has five goals and seven points in March, while seeing ice time on Milwaukee’s top two lines.

Meanwhile, after a two-goal effort and a two-assist effort in his four AHL games this season with Milwaukee, defenseman Jon Blum fell off the face of the earth during January and February as reality set in that his most recent demotion to the Admirals was going to be permanent.

After abysmal defensive efforts against Chicago and Rockford in back-to-back games on March 7th and 10th (-3 and -4 respectively), the former first-round pick has played to just a minus-two rating since (good for the own-zone deficient defender). Offensively, Blum now ranks ninth on Milwaukee in scoring with 20 points, with seven points so far in March.

Certainly, if Milwaukee is going to return to the playoffs for the tenth straight season, Dupont and Blum must continue their upward trends.

Hutton and Rockford Dogs Ads 3-2 in a Shootout, Makes it Seven in Row Over Milwaukee

If Milwaukee does not make the AHL playoff this season, it will be easy to point to one reason why–the Admirals’ abysmal record against Rockford.

On the sixth annual Pedigree Dog Day Sunday afternoon at the Bradley Center, the Ice Hogs made it seven in row over Milwaukee with a 3-2 shootout victory. With the win Rockford now owns a stunning 8-1-0-1 against the Admirals this season and the two points gained ties the Ice Hogs with Milwaukee at 71 in the Western Conference. Both squads stand four points behind the four-way log jam at 75, represented by the sixth through ninth place spots of Charlotte, Rochester, San Antonio and Peoria, respectively.

However, it wasn’t all negative for the Admirals as Brodie Dupont’s goal in the final minute of regulation earned Milwaukee five points out of a possible six on the weekend, making a return to the playoffs a much more feasible proposition than it was three days prior.

Here is Admirals coach Ian Herbers thoughts on the game:

Coming off the bus from Peoria the previous night Milwaukee (65 Games Played, 33-27-2-3–75 points) played desperate, but sluggish at the same time, allowing several odd man rushes against in the first few minutes. That pressure resulted in Rockford (68 GP, 32-29-2-5–71 points) scoring the game’s opening goal eight minutes in as former Admiral and Nashville Predator Wade Brookbank out-muscled his defender and goaltender Atte Engren to put away a loose rebound for his first goal of the season. Former Wisconsin Badger Brian Fahey appeared to make it 2-0 later in the period, but the goal was waved off as Engren was interfered with by a crashing Ice Hogs forward.

Regrouping from that point Milwaukee dominated the rest of the period, and got rewarded for it when Ryan Thang tied the game with 53 seconds left in the first period. It was Mark Van Guilder’s dogged effort that setup the gorgeous play, working his way out from behind the net to hit Thang on the back door with a backhand pass. All the former Golden Domer had to do find the empty net from down on one leg.

Despite a 10-8 deficit in shots during the second period the Ice Hogs were the better team, and a result Rockford restored their one goal lead at 2-1. Three minutes into the middle frame former 2008 11th overall draft pick Kyle Beach was the receiving end of text book setup of their own from Brandon Svendsen and newly minted Rockford forward Terry Broadhurst (recently of Nebraska-Omaha). Both the Admirals defense and Engren over committed to the Ice Hogs forwards in the corner, allowing Beach plenty of room for a one-timed blast.

From that point the Admirals showed plenty of desperation looking for the tying marker. Yet once again Rockford goaltender Carter Hutton foiled just about everything Milwaukee threw at him. As the Admirals took chances Engren made a few key saves of odd man rushes on the other end.

After both teams took timeouts Milwaukee finally got into Rockford’s zone with pressure in the final 40 seconds. The result was Jonathan Blum’s best play of the season in Milwaukee, as he made a seeing eye slap shot pass toward Dupont, which the red hot Admiral deflected into the gaping space of net on the right side of Hutton. Dupont’s equalizer with 31.4 seconds left earned Milwaukee its much needed point.

After a quiet overtime Rockford closed things out in the shootout as both Philippe Paradis and Rostislav Olesz made Engren look like a chew toy with slick moves.

It was certainly an eventful night for Milwaukee’s Finnish netminder:

Milwaukee’s second shooter Kyle Wilson scored on a smooth backhand fake to get the Admirals on the board, but Chris Mueller, Ryan Thang and Taylor Beck all failed to force extra shooters.

So Roundtable . . . Another start for Carter Hutton, and another win against Milwaukee (8-1-0 against the Admirals), but could Dupont’s last minute goal turn the corner for the Admirals confidence against Hutton?

How satisfied are you with five of six points this weekend?

Have your thoughts changed on Milwaukee’s chances for making the playoffs?

Handicapping AHL’s Western Conference Playoff Race

As of Tuesday, the American Hockey League’s Western Conference playoff picture remains a muddled mess. With 14 games or less left on every team’s schedule just five points separate fifth place Abbotsford from tenth place San Antonio (Chicago is in third also with 75 points). In between the Rampage and Heat are a Ben Bishop-less Peoria, a free-falling Charlotte, a Eastern Conference schedule dominant Rochester and Lake Erie. Four points further below San Antonio are Milwaukee and Grand Rapids with a hard charging Rockford only another point back.

Therefore, things will change a lot in the coming weeks as teams fight for the West’s final playoff spots. But now is as good a time as any to evaluate the bubble and predict which teams will play for the Calder Cup and which teams should dust off their golf clubs.

First I will start with some assumptions:

1) Oklahoma City and Toronto will make the playoffs. Both teams are currently comfortable, sitting high above the bubble line. Plus their NHL affiliates are unlikely to play postseason hockey, meaning the Barons and Marlies will have plenty of help.

2) Though, this might come back to bite me (especially with the Wolves), I am going to say that Houston and Chicago will also make the playoffs. The Aeros have a favorable home/road schedule coming home, while Chicago has a great goals for/goals against ratio. Both teams pass the “eye test” as far as what counts for a playoff team.

3) On the other end of the spectrum Hamilton and Texas have too large a hill to climb. Both teams stand 10 or more points out and that’s simply too much of a gap to cover in the final weeks of the season.

So who gets in to the Calder Cup playoffs and who does not?

I have these three teams as playoff bound:

Peoria (12 Games Remaining, 35-26-2-1–73 pts.): Despite the recent trades of Brett Sterling and Ben Bishop, the Rivermen remain loaded for a playoff run. Earlier in the season Peoria underachieved with its veteran-laden roster, but this has been a different team in the second half. Plus Peoria’s affiliate St. Louis is healthy, playoff-bound and seems likely to grab the number one position in the NHL’s Western Conference. At least until the NHL playoffs, the Rivermen should remain well-stocked.

Rochester (13 GR, 31-23-6-3–71 pts.): I see Rochester as almost a shoe-in to make the playoffs for the simple reason that the Americans play an incredibly favorable schedule to close their season. Left on the slate are 3 games with Syracuse (9th place East), 1 game with Albany (11th place East), 1 game with Adirondack (13th place East), 1 game with Binghamton (worst record in the AHL), plus a game at Hamilton. The Amerks will likely get into the playoffs even if they only win a game or two against the Western Conference the rest of the way.

Charlotte (14 GR, 32-22-3-5–72 pts.): The Checkers ran into a buzz saw over the weekend against Norfolk to fall to just 2-4-1-3 in their last 10 games. The schedule doesn’t get any easier down the stretch with 4 games with Peoria, two with Abbotsford and two with Hershey (plus 3 with Milwaukee). The lone positive is that though coach Kirk Muller is guiding the Carolina Hurricanes on last ditch playoff run, the Checkers’ NHL affiliate will likely fall short. Therefore, for the end of the season Charlotte will likely load up with youngsters to try to gain them some Calder Cup playoff experience.

I see these four teams falling just short:

MILWAUKEE (14 GR, 31-27-2-2–66 pts.): It’s hard to swallow this one, but barring a late winning streak, the Admirals will fall just short of the playoffs. Much of this has to do with the team’s NHL affiliate Nashville, taking many of Milwaukee’s key pieces during the season, while not sending a whole lot back in return. Combine that with the fact that the Predators frequently traded away draft picks over the past couple of seasons, meant that the Admirals needed another year of overachieving. For the first half of the year Milwaukee did exactly that, but reality has set in so far in the season’s second half.

Grand Rapids (14 GR, 28-24-6-4–66 pts.): Kudos to Grand Rapids for their recent play and their recent affiliation extension agreement with Detroit. However, with the Red Wings riddled with injuries and needing healthy bodies to make sure on the playoffs, I just don’t see Grand Rapids getting much stretch run help. Therefore, the Griffins will fall short.

Rockford (12 GR, 29-28-2-5–65 pts.): Hard to believe a team that has won 7 of 9 games against Milwaukee will not make the playoffs, but Ice Hogs simply started out too slow this season. Like the New Jersey Devils a year ago, Rockford got really hot in the second half and made a huge push for the playoffs, but at some point the Ice Hogs will come back to reality. It doesn’t help that Chicago has borrowed Rockford’s players left and right, and that will likely continue toward the end of the season, torpedoing a miracle playoff birth.

Lake Erie (11 GR, 32-26-3-4–71 points): It was a tough call on the Monsters, but every bubble opponent with the exception of Abbotsford has games in hand on the Cleveland natives and that will likely do in Lake Erie in the end. It doesn’t help that out of nowhere NHL affiliate Colorado is making a playoff run of its own, depleting an already roster-shortened Monsters squad. Overall, it’s amazing that Lake Erie came this close considering the overall talent the team had available.

And my final playoff spot goes to:

Abbotsford (10 GR, 34-25-3-4–75 pts.): Despite having the fewest games left of any playoff contender on its schedule, Abbotsford should be in as a playoff team. Of those 10 games remaining, eight are at home at a rink two time zones away from its nearest opponent. What works against the Heat is that NHL affiliate Calgary is still clinging onto dim playoff hopes, which won’t help stock Abbotsford’s roster. However, I see the Heat slotting in at the eighth spot giving Oklahoma City a travel nightmare in the first round.

If Abbotsford lost last night to Texas, I would have swapped them with my final team out which is:

San Antonio (13 GR, 33-26-3-1–70 pts.): A few weeks ago I said the Rampage were a soft playoff team (in sixth place at the time). Since that point San Antonio has slipped ever so slightly, down to currently just a point out of the playoffs. The Rampage have a strong blend of youngsters and quality veterans, but what will hurt in the end is that NHL affiliate Florida is a playoff contender for the first time in over a decade. In the end Nolan Yonkman (team-leading +15) and company will fall just short.

So Roundtable: What are your AHL Western Conference playoff predictions? Which teams do you have playing postseason hockey and which teams are you counting out?

Kadri Sours St. Patrick’s Day, Spoils Admirals Comeback Bid Against Toronto

Toronto Marlies forward Nazem Kadri had no interest in allowing the Admirals a second straight comeback win.

The former 2009 first-round draft pick’s game-winning goal with just over three minutes left in regulation thwarted Milwaukee’s attempt at back-to-back come from behind victories. Toronto spoiled St. Patrick’s Day for Milwaukee with 3-2 victory at Ricoh Coliseum.

It was Kadri’s second goal of the game. The first in the opening minute of the middle frame gave Toronto a 2-0 edge. After Admirals Mark Van Guilder and Scott Ford couldn’t handle a long rebound from Engren, Kadri buried the loose change.

The Marlies grabbed their first lead 13:51 into the first period as Ryan Hamilton scored his 23rd goal of the season by wiring a point blank blast past Admirals goaltender Atte Engren.

Admirals forward Brodie Dupont got Milwaukee back into the game with a goal 52 seconds before the end of the second period (his third on the weekend). Ryan Flynn setup the play, wrapping the puck around and taking a backhanded shot. Dupont fought his way through a pile of bodies to bang in the rebound. Kyle Wilson’s 18th goal of the year tied things at 2 piece with just over 12 minutes to play in the game. After Jon Blum hit Wilson in stride with a 150-foot stretch pass, Wilson turned to his side and slammed home a backhander on a beautiful effort.

However, unlike the night prior Milwaukee was unable to complete the heroics and pull off the win as Kadri closed the door on the Admirals comeback bid with his 2-on-1 deflection goal la.

Engren stopped 23 of 26 Toronto shots to take the loss, while Jussi Rynnas made 24 saves to earn the victory for the Marlies.

The loss drops Milwaukee to 31-27-2-2, good enough for 66 points. The Admirals remain in 11th place, five points behind eighth place Lake Erie.

To watch highlights of the game click here. To read the Milwaukee Admirals recap here. Finally, check out the official AHL game sheet here.

So Roundtable . . . Two out of four points on the weekend makes the road to the playoffs that much tougher. However, did you see any positives in the team’s resiliency all weekend? Or were these efforts too little to late?

More on the Post Rockford Playoff Fallout

Next week I will go into detail on the AHL’s playoff bubble and make my predictions on which Western Conference teams will make the playoffs and which teams will far short.

(Author’s note: Was going to do this today, but as of now I see little chance of the Admirals making the playoffs and therefore the point is sort of moot).

But for now, as Ryan stated on Sunday despite last weekend’s disaster, Milwaukee (currently standing with 64 points through 60 games) still has 16 games left to try to pick up 32 possible points. If the Admirals get hot and manage a conceivable 23 points from here on out, that would give Milwaukee a total of 87–four points short of a playoff position from a year ago. However, each team plays four less games this year, so I would think 87 points would be enough to get into the postseason dance.

Certainly I will acknowledge that last paragraph is full of hypotheticals. Moving back to reality, the big problem going forward for the Admirals is the remaining schedule. Milwaukee has just six home games left in those final 16 contests (only Chicago and Rockford feature road/home schedule ratios worse than Milwaukee in their games left). How is this a problem? The Admirals own the AHL’s sixth best home record at 19-11-2-0. But away from the Bradley Center Milwaukee sinks to the league’s 28th best record at 11-15-0-2.

At least this weekend offers a little help. Milwaukee plays eighth place Lake Erie on Friday, then North Division leading Toronto on Saturday. A regulation win against Lake Erie would go a long way in the catch up process. Meanwhile, the Marlies are so far ahead of Milwaukee that giving up a point to Toronto would hardly be the end of the world as long as the Admirals manage at least a regulation tie. Milwaukee owns a 8-1-0-2 mark against Marlies over the past five years and an 8-5-1-1 mark against Lake Erie.

For more on the playoff race check out the AHL’s playoff primer.

So Roundtable . . . Forget about the playoffs for now. Are three or four points actually reasonable this weekend? Are you glad one of the two games isn’t against Rockford?

Jack Maclellan Joins the Predators

College signing season is officially upon us as of Saturday afternoon as the Nashville Predators signed free agent forward Jack Maclellan to a one-year entry-level contract today.

Maclellan just completed his senior season at Brown, where he led the Bears with 30 points, including 15 goals. Over his four-year Division 1 career the Calgary, Alberta native contributed 101 points in 121 games.

Maclellan is plenty familiar to the Predators, having attended the team’s Development Camp last summer. The 23-year-old Brown captain became eligible to leave when the ECAC’s last place Bears dropped their first round playoff series to Quinnipiac in three games last weekend, finishing the season at 9-18-5.

The Carter Hutton Factor

The American Hockey League announced today that Rockford goaltender Carter Hutton was named the league’s Player of the Week. Yes, he is an extremely deserving candidate, but WHY am I blogging about that on the Admirals Roundtable?

Simple: It was Hutton’s fault that Milwaukee did not record a 6-point weekend, when he stopped 44 of 45 shots against Milwaukee on Saturday night. But what Hutton take-ith away, Hutton give-ith as well for the Admirals, as the Ice Hogs second-year netminder made 24-saves as Rockford knocked off Peoria on Sunday.

Beyond just the weekend Hutton has had a superb year for the pigs, posting a 15-8-3 record (including two shutouts), with a 2.50 goals against average and a .916 save percentage for what’s been a basement of the Midwest Division-dwelling Rockford team.

Before the season Hutton was on an AHL-only deal. However, with the Chicago Blackhawks goaltending situation in disarray this season, on February 24, the Hawks upgraded Hutton’s contract to a two-way deal. Considering Chicago’s issues with Corey Crawford and Ray Emery, it is conceivable that Hutton could be given a shot at some point with the Blackhawks.

But at the present time Milwaukee needs to figure out the former UMass-Lowell product, or face a spring without playoffs. Four of the Admirals’ next 11 games come against Rockford, and five of the last 19 (and in case you didn’t notice, Milwaukee has a home-and-home with Rockford this weekend). Milwaukee has lost four games in a row in the season series–all with Hutton in between the pipes for the Ice Hogs.

So Roundtable . . . How can Milwaukee Solve Carter Hutton? Are you secretly hoping Chicago will recall Hutton, or are the Admirals due for another six-goal output against the second-year Rockford goaltender?

The Frustrating, or Maybe Not So Frustrating, AHL Standings

In case you haven’t noticed, the Milwaukee Admirals have finally righted the sinking January ship, taking five points over the weekend and picking up another regulation win last night against Peoria.

That makes 29 wins on the season for Milwaukee in 55 games. However, the Admirals still stand in ninth place currently watching the AHL playoffs rather than participating in them. Such is life when trying to gain ground in a league full of three-point games.

But with things starting to turn around on the Bradley Center ice, Milwaukee fans have good reason to expect that Admirals will make the franchise’s 10th straight postseason appearance.

Here are four of them:

1) Milwaukee owns three games in hand on eighth place Peoria.

Though not terribly important at this point in the year, the Admirals still have three more games to play on their schedule than does eighth place Peoria. With a huge head-to-head win last night, Milwaukee also moves back ahead in the season series between the two teams and now trails the Rivermen by only a single point. As long as the Admirals match Peoria’s record in their remaining games, then pick up one win in the three games in hand, Milwaukee will leapfrog the Rivermen in the Western Conference standings.

2) Milwaukee has more wins than seventh place Houston, and a better head-to-head record.

Currently Houston stands with two more points than Milwaukee in the same amount of games played. However, if the Admirals can catch the Aeros down the stretch, Milwaukee should win a tie breaker of having more regulation wins because Houston racked up so many points in shootout losses this season. Milwaukee also owns the upper hand on the Aeros as far as the the season series to date (2-0-0-0).

3) Milwaukee carries a strong ratio of goals for to goals against.

So far this season the Admirals have scored 155 goals and have given up 144. That ratio of 1.08 is better than every other team in the conference with the exceptions of Oklahoma City, Toronto and Chicago. Even Midwest Division leading Charlotte has a worse number than Milwaukee (1.07). Two teams ahead of the Admirals in the standings, fifth place Abbotsford and sixth place San Antonio, carry ratios of less than one at .96 and .94 respectively, meaning they’ve given up more goals than they’ve scored.

Over the course of the season that ratio tends to accurately reflect who are the best teams in the AHL and who are weakest. Using this statistic as the actual standings, Milwaukee fans could book home ice tickets for the first round.

4) Milwaukee owns games in hand on its rival chasers for eighth place.

The final aspect Milwaukee has going for them is that the Admirals have games in hand on all of their fellow chasers, with the exceptions of Grand Rapids (stuck at 55 points in 53 games played) and Texas (52 points in the same amount of games played as the Admirals). Milwaukee owns one game in hand on Rochester, which trails the Admirals by a point, and two games in hand on Lake Erie, which trails the Admirals by three points. Further back Hamilton and Rockford are each at 55 points through 56 and 57 games respectively.

Along with keeping the chasers behind them, Milwaukee still has a good shot of catching sixth place San Antonio, which stands with 65 points through 57 games. If the Admirals can match the Rampage from here on out and win their two games in hand, Milwaukee will pass San Antonio. Even if the Admirals can just match the Rampage record wise, again Milwaukee takes the head-to-head match up (2-0-0-0).

So Roundtable . . . How are you feeling about Milwaukee’s chances of making the AHL playoffs? Are you breathing any easier after recent performances? Or are you still expecting the nine consecutive year playoff streak to come to an end.