If all goes well, you’ll be seeing a new author here on the Roundtable at some point this weekend.

His name is Trey Killian.  Here’s a little bit about him.

Trey is a 4th generation hockey writer.  His great grandfather, Patrick O’Guinness wrote for the now defunct Montreal Star newspaper, covering the Canadiens for many many years.  He was named by the Canadian Press as the best hockey beat writer of the first half of the 20th Century.  An Irishman in Montreal wasn’t the easiest thing to be, but O’Guinness had the power of prose, and on most nights, already had his story written before the end of the third period — with quotes from the Head Coach already added.  See, he knew exactly what the coach would say.  He was THAT good.

Trey’s grandfather, Peter “Pow Pow” Killian, was also a hockey writer.  He is credited with inventing the cliche of “put the biscuit in the basket,” and was the first writer to report an injury as an “upper body injury”.

Trey’s father, Bob Killian, wrote for three seasons, but then found a job that actually paid decent money, so he took that.  But he was supportive of Trey following his dream of one day being a big-time hockey writer.

And look at Trey now.  He’s made the big-time.  The Admirals Roundtable.  He’ll be the first 4th generation hockey writer in the history of the world when he makes his Roundtable debut this weekend.

So please, welcome the newest member of the Roundtable writing staff, Mr. Trey Killian.

And now, the transcript of a completely made-up press conference.

Ryan:  Alright, this fake press conference is now UNDER THERE!  Dave Boehler, you get the honor of the first question.

Dave Boehler:  Hi Trey…Dave Boehler, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  Maybe you’ve heard of me.  I’m kind of a big deal.  What made you want to join the Roundtable?

Trey Killian:  Hi Dave.  Truthfully, I just wanted to be part of a winning team, and help the team any way I can.  Plus, I love Mountain Fury, so I figured this would be a perfect match.

Sutty:  ‘Sup bro.  Have you been briefed about what kind of hazing is involved with the job?  You’re the new guy….there really isn’t any way around it.

Trey Killian:  ‘Sup.  Yeah, I’ve heard it involves Beef-a-roo.  I’m okay with that.  I think.

ManInTheBox:  So, you think you can just come in here and start writing?  Just like that?  How do we know that we can trust you?

Trey Killian:  I don’t like Sidney Crosby.

ManInTheBox:  Good enough for me.  You can stay.

Aaron Sims:  Trey, have you become a fan of Chili Sabotage on Facebook yet?  They’re kind of a big deal too.

Trey Killian:  Not yet, but it’ll be the first thing I do when I get home.

OUCH!:  Do you have strong feelings about the dump-and-chase style of play?

Trey Killian:  Depends on the personnel.  It’s not the most exciting hockey to watch.

Dave Boehler:  Will you do one of the day-in-the-life articles or 20-questions posts for my blog over at JSOnline?

Trey Killian:  Sure, if you want.  But I’m not here to make a scene.  Just to write about the sport I love.  That’s all.  I had an Eggo for breakfast today.  I’m pretty sure your readers wouldn’t care.

Creedfeed:  Are you up on all the lingo?  Are you ready to Fury The Fury?

Trey Killian:  Fake sponsorships are the best.  I fury the fury in everyday life, so I don’t think there will be a problem.

Dave Boehler:  Pow-Pow Killian……Ryan just made that up, didn’t he?

Trey Killian:  Dave, do you really need to ask that?

Ryan:  We’ll take one more question for Mr. Killian.  (pause).  Anybody?  (crickets chirping)  Anybody?  Come on Dave, through him a softball question for him to hit out of the park.

Dave Boehler:  Actually, a question for you, Ryan.  Why did you feel the need to write this fluff piece today?

Ryan:  To lighten the mood around here a bit.  It’s been pretty dour in these parts lately.  And to introduce Trey, who is going to be a great addition to the staff going forward.

As of Tuesday, the American Hockey League’s Western Conference playoff picture remains a muddled mess. With 14 games or less left on every team’s schedule just five points separate fifth place Abbotsford from tenth place San Antonio (Chicago is in third also with 75 points). In between the Rampage and Heat are a Ben Bishop-less Peoria, a free-falling Charlotte, a Eastern Conference schedule dominant Rochester and Lake Erie. Four points further below San Antonio are Milwaukee and Grand Rapids with a hard charging Rockford only another point back.

Therefore, things will change a lot in the coming weeks as teams fight for the West’s final playoff spots. But now is as good a time as any to evaluate the bubble and predict which teams will play for the Calder Cup and which teams should dust off their golf clubs.

First I will start with some assumptions:

1) Oklahoma City and Toronto will make the playoffs. Both teams are currently comfortable, sitting high above the bubble line. Plus their NHL affiliates are unlikely to play postseason hockey, meaning the Barons and Marlies will have plenty of help.

2) Though, this might come back to bite me (especially with the Wolves), I am going to say that Houston and Chicago will also make the playoffs. The Aeros have a favorable home/road schedule coming home, while Chicago has a great goals for/goals against ratio. Both teams pass the “eye test” as far as what counts for a playoff team.

3) On the other end of the spectrum Hamilton and Texas have too large a hill to climb. Both teams stand 10 or more points out and that’s simply too much of a gap to cover in the final weeks of the season.

So who gets in to the Calder Cup playoffs and who does not?

I have these three teams as playoff bound:

Peoria (12 Games Remaining, 35-26-2-1–73 pts.): Despite the recent trades of Brett Sterling and Ben Bishop, the Rivermen remain loaded for a playoff run. Earlier in the season Peoria underachieved with its veteran-laden roster, but this has been a different team in the second half. Plus Peoria’s affiliate St. Louis is healthy, playoff-bound and seems likely to grab the number one position in the NHL’s Western Conference. At least until the NHL playoffs, the Rivermen should remain well-stocked.

Rochester (13 GR, 31-23-6-3–71 pts.): I see Rochester as almost a shoe-in to make the playoffs for the simple reason that the Americans play an incredibly favorable schedule to close their season. Left on the slate are 3 games with Syracuse (9th place East), 1 game with Albany (11th place East), 1 game with Adirondack (13th place East), 1 game with Binghamton (worst record in the AHL), plus a game at Hamilton. The Amerks will likely get into the playoffs even if they only win a game or two against the Western Conference the rest of the way.

Charlotte (14 GR, 32-22-3-5–72 pts.): The Checkers ran into a buzz saw over the weekend against Norfolk to fall to just 2-4-1-3 in their last 10 games. The schedule doesn’t get any easier down the stretch with 4 games with Peoria, two with Abbotsford and two with Hershey (plus 3 with Milwaukee). The lone positive is that though coach Kirk Muller is guiding the Carolina Hurricanes on last ditch playoff run, the Checkers’ NHL affiliate will likely fall short. Therefore, for the end of the season Charlotte will likely load up with youngsters to try to gain them some Calder Cup playoff experience.

I see these four teams falling just short:

MILWAUKEE (14 GR, 31-27-2-2–66 pts.): It’s hard to swallow this one, but barring a late winning streak, the Admirals will fall just short of the playoffs. Much of this has to do with the team’s NHL affiliate Nashville, taking many of Milwaukee’s key pieces during the season, while not sending a whole lot back in return. Combine that with the fact that the Predators frequently traded away draft picks over the past couple of seasons, meant that the Admirals needed another year of overachieving. For the first half of the year Milwaukee did exactly that, but reality has set in so far in the season’s second half.

Grand Rapids (14 GR, 28-24-6-4–66 pts.): Kudos to Grand Rapids for their recent play and their recent affiliation extension agreement with Detroit. However, with the Red Wings riddled with injuries and needing healthy bodies to make sure on the playoffs, I just don’t see Grand Rapids getting much stretch run help. Therefore, the Griffins will fall short.

Rockford (12 GR, 29-28-2-5–65 pts.): Hard to believe a team that has won 7 of 9 games against Milwaukee will not make the playoffs, but Ice Hogs simply started out too slow this season. Like the New Jersey Devils a year ago, Rockford got really hot in the second half and made a huge push for the playoffs, but at some point the Ice Hogs will come back to reality. It doesn’t help that Chicago has borrowed Rockford’s players left and right, and that will likely continue toward the end of the season, torpedoing a miracle playoff birth.

Lake Erie (11 GR, 32-26-3-4–71 points): It was a tough call on the Monsters, but every bubble opponent with the exception of Abbotsford has games in hand on the Cleveland natives and that will likely do in Lake Erie in the end. It doesn’t help that out of nowhere NHL affiliate Colorado is making a playoff run of its own, depleting an already roster-shortened Monsters squad. Overall, it’s amazing that Lake Erie came this close considering the overall talent the team had available.

And my final playoff spot goes to:

Abbotsford (10 GR, 34-25-3-4–75 pts.): Despite having the fewest games left of any playoff contender on its schedule, Abbotsford should be in as a playoff team. Of those 10 games remaining, eight are at home at a rink two time zones away from its nearest opponent. What works against the Heat is that NHL affiliate Calgary is still clinging onto dim playoff hopes, which won’t help stock Abbotsford’s roster. However, I see the Heat slotting in at the eighth spot giving Oklahoma City a travel nightmare in the first round.

If Abbotsford lost last night to Texas, I would have swapped them with my final team out which is:

San Antonio (13 GR, 33-26-3-1–70 pts.): A few weeks ago I said the Rampage were a soft playoff team (in sixth place at the time). Since that point San Antonio has slipped ever so slightly, down to currently just a point out of the playoffs. The Rampage have a strong blend of youngsters and quality veterans, but what will hurt in the end is that NHL affiliate Florida is a playoff contender for the first time in over a decade. In the end Nolan Yonkman (team-leading +15) and company will fall just short.

So Roundtable: What are your AHL Western Conference playoff predictions? Which teams do you have playing postseason hockey and which teams are you counting out?

Next week I will go into detail on the AHL’s playoff bubble and make my predictions on which Western Conference teams will make the playoffs and which teams will far short.

(Author’s note: Was going to do this today, but as of now I see little chance of the Admirals making the playoffs and therefore the point is sort of moot).

But for now, as Ryan stated on Sunday despite last weekend’s disaster, Milwaukee (currently standing with 64 points through 60 games) still has 16 games left to try to pick up 32 possible points. If the Admirals get hot and manage a conceivable 23 points from here on out, that would give Milwaukee a total of 87–four points short of a playoff position from a year ago. However, each team plays four less games this year, so I would think 87 points would be enough to get into the postseason dance.

Certainly I will acknowledge that last paragraph is full of hypotheticals. Moving back to reality, the big problem going forward for the Admirals is the remaining schedule. Milwaukee has just six home games left in those final 16 contests (only Chicago and Rockford feature road/home schedule ratios worse than Milwaukee in their games left). How is this a problem? The Admirals own the AHL’s sixth best home record at 19-11-2-0. But away from the Bradley Center Milwaukee sinks to the league’s 28th best record at 11-15-0-2.

At least this weekend offers a little help. Milwaukee plays eighth place Lake Erie on Friday, then North Division leading Toronto on Saturday. A regulation win against Lake Erie would go a long way in the catch up process. Meanwhile, the Marlies are so far ahead of Milwaukee that giving up a point to Toronto would hardly be the end of the world as long as the Admirals manage at least a regulation tie. Milwaukee owns a 8-1-0-2 mark against Marlies over the past five years and an 8-5-1-1 mark against Lake Erie.

For more on the playoff race check out the AHL’s playoff primer.

So Roundtable . . . Forget about the playoffs for now. Are three or four points actually reasonable this weekend? Are you glad one of the two games isn’t against Rockford?

After a bad game on Saturday, the  Admirals followed it up with another poor outing Sunday evening, losing in the rematch to the Rockford IceHogs 3-2 in the land of the Roo.

Down 3-0 with five minutes left in the third period, Taylor Beck and Chris Mueller scored to make the final score look a lot closer than the game actually was.  And then Taylor Beck took a boarding penalty with 59 seconds left to halt the rally prematurely.

Nuts and bolts are here.  The Admirals recap is here.

Last night, Coach said they would need more desperation in their game coming out of the gate tonight.  But what he got was minor penalties, and the team being outshot 18-7.

And again tonight — it wasn’t the skill players who scored for Rockford.  It was Ryan Stanton, who scored his 2nd of the year (and 2nd against the Admirals in his last four games).  Brandon Svendsen, who scored his third of the year.  Rob Flick’s game winner was his third of the year.

Ground control to Kyle Wilson.  Your circuit’s dead.  There’s something wrong.  Still just one assist for him in the season series against Rockford.

Coach Drulia used the word “passengers” when describing some of the players on the post-game show.  It doesn’t matter what the coaches draw up for the gameplan if the guys on the ice are just along for the ride.

So yes, it’s an immensely disappointing weekend.  And let’s frame this disappointment appropriately.  The IceHogs aren’t your typical cellar-dweller team.  They are the hottest team in the league right now not named the Norfolk Admirals.  They have at least a point in nine of their last ten games.  And Carter Hutton wasn’t manning the net the first two months of the season…if he was, who knows…they may be in first right now.

Despite the stinkers this weekend, the Admirals are only 6 points out of the playoffs with games in hand.  Not unheard of.  But they are running out of chances….even the optimist in me can see that.  They can help themselves with four points next weekend against two out-of-division teams ahead of them in the standings.

 

College signing season is officially upon us as of Saturday afternoon as the Nashville Predators signed free agent forward Jack Maclellan to a one-year entry-level contract today.

Maclellan just completed his senior season at Brown, where he led the Bears with 30 points, including 15 goals. Over his four-year Division 1 career the Calgary, Alberta native contributed 101 points in 121 games.

Maclellan is plenty familiar to the Predators, having attended the team’s Development Camp last summer. The 23-year-old Brown captain became eligible to leave when the ECAC’s last place Bears dropped their first round playoff series to Quinnipiac in three games last weekend, finishing the season at 9-18-5.

Hey there.

Just a quick note to let you know the Clear Day roster was officially announced.

From the AHL website…

Atte Engren (G), Jeremy Smith (G), Victor Bartley, Taylor Beck, Jonathon Blum, Gabriel Bourque, Joel Champagne, Brodie Dupont, Ryan Ellis, Ryan Flynn, Scott Ford, Teemu Laakso, Jani Lajunen, Michael Latta, Chris Mueller, Juuso Puustinen, Tyler Sloan, Zach Stortini, Ryan Thang, Scott Valentine, Mark Van Guilder, Kyle Wilson

So Kevin Henderson did not make the clear day roster, but expect to see plenty of him going forward.  As long as Ellis and Bourque are in Nashville, just one other player on that list needs to be injured or called up for Henderson to be able to play.

Henderson, Taylor Aronson, Ben Ryan, Garrett Suter, Chet Pickard, David Leaderer, and Jeff Foss are all “in residence”.

The other interesting thing is that they spelled Stortini’s first name wrong on the AHL site.  Supposed to be Zack with a K.  Not an H.  I hope there isn’t some technicality about his eligibility now…

The American Hockey League announced today that Rockford goaltender Carter Hutton was named the league’s Player of the Week. Yes, he is an extremely deserving candidate, but WHY am I blogging about that on the Admirals Roundtable?

Simple: It was Hutton’s fault that Milwaukee did not record a 6-point weekend, when he stopped 44 of 45 shots against Milwaukee on Saturday night. But what Hutton take-ith away, Hutton give-ith as well for the Admirals, as the Ice Hogs second-year netminder made 24-saves as Rockford knocked off Peoria on Sunday.

Beyond just the weekend Hutton has had a superb year for the pigs, posting a 15-8-3 record (including two shutouts), with a 2.50 goals against average and a .916 save percentage for what’s been a basement of the Midwest Division-dwelling Rockford team.

Before the season Hutton was on an AHL-only deal. However, with the Chicago Blackhawks goaltending situation in disarray this season, on February 24, the Hawks upgraded Hutton’s contract to a two-way deal. Considering Chicago’s issues with Corey Crawford and Ray Emery, it is conceivable that Hutton could be given a shot at some point with the Blackhawks.

But at the present time Milwaukee needs to figure out the former UMass-Lowell product, or face a spring without playoffs. Four of the Admirals’ next 11 games come against Rockford, and five of the last 19 (and in case you didn’t notice, Milwaukee has a home-and-home with Rockford this weekend). Milwaukee has lost four games in a row in the season series–all with Hutton in between the pipes for the Ice Hogs.

So Roundtable . . . How can Milwaukee Solve Carter Hutton? Are you secretly hoping Chicago will recall Hutton, or are the Admirals due for another six-goal output against the second-year Rockford goaltender?

Styx put on a great show.

And the Admirals put on a great show.

Our official gamer from yesterday is here….but today we’re posting some post-game audio and giving you the chance to re-live the six goals.

It started with a perfectly placed shot by Zack Stortini.

And then to capitalize on the 5-on-3 power play?  That’s a big deal.

First the Coach….then the goal.

The Wolves brought some more energy in the second period, and were the better team for the majority of the frame I’d say.  But a hot goalie can make a difference.

First the Coach, then the save of the game, and then some thoughts from Smitty.

I like that Smitty gives some credit to assistant coach Stan Drulia for helping him stay sharp.

And then Ben Ryan got into the act.  He had actually been having a pretty good night.  He had some good chances, including being part of a 2-on-0 rush against Climie with Taylor Beck.  Beck’s pass was bouncy (Thanks for the high quality ice, Marquette basketball), and Ryan couldn’t quite finish the play.  But he finished this next one.  Frankly, I’m surprised he was so wide open to get the tip and then the poke.

In the third period, Kevin Henderson got in the act.  He was promoted off of his PTO contract earlier this week, and scored his first goal as an Admiral early in the third period to make it a 4-0 lead.

Here’s Coach Herbers on the play of Ryan and Henderson.

What I find interesting is that Herbie says that Ryan will need to string some of these good outings together, even though Ryan seems like an odd-man out when it comes to the clear day roster.  Does Henderson have a chance?  Maybe.  Brodie Dupont was a scratch last night.  If Henderson does make the clear day roster, maybe it would be at Dupont’s expense?

Chris Mueller had this power play goal….  It was one of those nights when they got the bounces going their way.

And then Kevin Henderson wrapped this one up with a short-handed goal.  Climie I think usually makes that save…but Adam Polasek is really the one who blew the play.

Henderson is happy to be here and contributing.  And he talks a little bit about the injury that kept him sidelined for so long this season.

Like I said in the post yesterday….it’s nice to get a laugher every now and then.  But there’s plenty more work to be done.  If the season ended today, we’d be out of the playoffs.  But 12 of their last 19 games are against teams that are currently ahead of them in the standings.  The whole 4-point-game concept is the old cliche, but that’s what most of these will be.  It’ll be a sprint to the end.

In case you haven’t noticed, the Milwaukee Admirals have finally righted the sinking January ship, taking five points over the weekend and picking up another regulation win last night against Peoria.

That makes 29 wins on the season for Milwaukee in 55 games. However, the Admirals still stand in ninth place currently watching the AHL playoffs rather than participating in them. Such is life when trying to gain ground in a league full of three-point games.

But with things starting to turn around on the Bradley Center ice, Milwaukee fans have good reason to expect that Admirals will make the franchise’s 10th straight postseason appearance.

Here are four of them:

1) Milwaukee owns three games in hand on eighth place Peoria.

Though not terribly important at this point in the year, the Admirals still have three more games to play on their schedule than does eighth place Peoria. With a huge head-to-head win last night, Milwaukee also moves back ahead in the season series between the two teams and now trails the Rivermen by only a single point. As long as the Admirals match Peoria’s record in their remaining games, then pick up one win in the three games in hand, Milwaukee will leapfrog the Rivermen in the Western Conference standings.

2) Milwaukee has more wins than seventh place Houston, and a better head-to-head record.

Currently Houston stands with two more points than Milwaukee in the same amount of games played. However, if the Admirals can catch the Aeros down the stretch, Milwaukee should win a tie breaker of having more regulation wins because Houston racked up so many points in shootout losses this season. Milwaukee also owns the upper hand on the Aeros as far as the the season series to date (2-0-0-0).

3) Milwaukee carries a strong ratio of goals for to goals against.

So far this season the Admirals have scored 155 goals and have given up 144. That ratio of 1.08 is better than every other team in the conference with the exceptions of Oklahoma City, Toronto and Chicago. Even Midwest Division leading Charlotte has a worse number than Milwaukee (1.07). Two teams ahead of the Admirals in the standings, fifth place Abbotsford and sixth place San Antonio, carry ratios of less than one at .96 and .94 respectively, meaning they’ve given up more goals than they’ve scored.

Over the course of the season that ratio tends to accurately reflect who are the best teams in the AHL and who are weakest. Using this statistic as the actual standings, Milwaukee fans could book home ice tickets for the first round.

4) Milwaukee owns games in hand on its rival chasers for eighth place.

The final aspect Milwaukee has going for them is that the Admirals have games in hand on all of their fellow chasers, with the exceptions of Grand Rapids (stuck at 55 points in 53 games played) and Texas (52 points in the same amount of games played as the Admirals). Milwaukee owns one game in hand on Rochester, which trails the Admirals by a point, and two games in hand on Lake Erie, which trails the Admirals by three points. Further back Hamilton and Rockford are each at 55 points through 56 and 57 games respectively.

Along with keeping the chasers behind them, Milwaukee still has a good shot of catching sixth place San Antonio, which stands with 65 points through 57 games. If the Admirals can match the Rampage from here on out and win their two games in hand, Milwaukee will pass San Antonio. Even if the Admirals can just match the Rampage record wise, again Milwaukee takes the head-to-head match up (2-0-0-0).

So Roundtable . . . How are you feeling about Milwaukee’s chances of making the AHL playoffs? Are you breathing any easier after recent performances? Or are you still expecting the nine consecutive year playoff streak to come to an end.

On the trade deadline, David Poile made a couple of moves that brought in some new bodies to Nashville.

One line of thinking was that it would create some extra bodies on the roster, and maybe we’d see a guy or two sent to Milwaukee for a bit.

Aaron Sims left this comment in the previous post, and I wanted to give it the above-the-fold treatment it deserves.

“Paul Fenton mentioned on the radio show last night that Nashville does NOT need to send anyone to Milwaukee. There is no roster limit after the trade deadline. Bourque & Ellis, with the paper transactions, are eligible for Milwaukee’s Clear Day roster. Josi is not.”

Ah Clear Day.  It’s that time of year already?

Clear Day is Monday March 5th, and the team needs to have their 22-man rosters sent to the league by 3pm ET.  From the AHL’s website…

Only those players included on a team’s Clear Day list are eligible to compete in the remainder of the AHL regular season and in the 2012 Calder Cup Playoffs, unless emergency conditions arise as a result of recall, injury or suspension. Teams may also add signed junior players or players on amateur tryout contracts, but only once their respective junior or college seasons are complete.

Clear Day is my least favorite holiday of the year.  Because it reminds me of the headaches of writing about the team AFTER Clear Day.  If you read us at the old blog, it’s where Eric Kent started using the phrase VOODOO ROSTERNOMICS, which really sums it up nicely.

When a guy like Ryan Maki can be left off of the Clear Day list, and then can play 19 regular season games in March and April and then seven playoff games…there’s some of that old black magic going on there.

Which is fine.  I’ve stopped losing sleep about it.  I find my happy place and don’t worry about it.  The “How” doesn’t matter.  General Managers generally manage, coaches coach, players play….good enough for me.

So with that said, I don’t expect too much controversy with this year’s Clear Day list.

Let’s assume that both Bourque and Ellis will be on the list.  They may not be.  But let’s assume the are for our example here.  I imagine there’s a good chance that the other 20 players would likely be:

Smith, Engren, Thang, Flynn, Latta, Mueller, Champagne, Stortini, Lajunen, Wilson, Van Guilder, Dupont, Beck, Puustinen, Laakso, Ford, Blum, Bartley, Sloan, Valentine.

This would leave guys like Kevin Henderson, Ben Ryan, Jeff Foss, and any PTO guy on the “in residence” list.

Kevin Henderson….he’s done a nice job so far.  If he made the Clear Day list, who would he realistically replace?

So to answer the original question in the title of this post….What happens now?  Probably more of the same, personnel wise.  We may get a guy or two back from injury this week.  Maybe we’ll get some juniors guys or some college guys signed to ATO’s later on.  But in the short term?  Probably more of the same.  And if we get the same results we had last weekend, then ‘more of the same’ sounds good to me.